EUR/USD set to move higher

CHART OF THE WEEK

After dipping briefly below 1.05 USD at the end of 2016, the EUR oscillated between 1.06 and 1.08 before breaking higher in mid-April. For the last few weeks, it has hovered at around 1.12 and is approaching the upper end of the trading range it has held for the past two years.

OUR ANALYSIS

Expectations for fresh economic stimulus following Donald Trump’s election led investors to anticipate rapid monetary policy tightening. This pushed short-term rates higher and these determine exchange rate paths. With fading expectations for economic stimulus, weaker US inflation data, and a growing conviction that monetary policy normalisation in the Eurozone is in sight, the value of the USD has fallen against the EUR. In the short term, if doubts over US inflation dissipate, the USD could rise again. However, monetary policy normalisation in the Eurozone will likely put the EUR on a sustained upward path

The opinion expressed above is dated June 19th, 2017, and is liable to change.

This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Frères Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Frères Gestion SAS.


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Julien-Pierre Nouen

Directeur des études économiques et de la gestion diversifiée