Economic outlook S2 2020 | An unpredictable epidemic but a return to full lockdown unlikely

Part 1 : an unpredictable epidemic but a return to full lockdown unlikely

 

Nearly nine months after COVID-19 first appeared in China, the pandemic is still spreading. However, the global situation is masking disparities across continents. The emergence from lockdown is bringing with it a resurgence of the pandemic in Europe, and the pandemic is progressing in Asia, especially in India. Meanwhile, Europe is facing a second wave while Africa and Oceania remain relatively unscathed.

Although each continent’s pandemic experience has been very different, lockdown measures have been relaxed almost everywhere. Some restrictions have been tightened in the United States and Europe, but the measures are now targeted and localised. As long as the disconnection between the number of new cases and deaths continues and the pressure on the hospital system is not too strong, a return to massive lockdown in Europe seems unlikely.

This approach is all the more likely given that progress on the vaccine front is faster than expected. Several candidates have already entered the final phase of pre-marketing clinical trials, and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has paved the way for fast-track approval before the end of the trials. US and European pharmaceutical companies are gearing up for significant production volumes next year.

 

To download our Economic Outlook click here.

See also : https://lazardfreresgestion-tribune.fr/en/market-outlook-s2-2020-unreasonable-equity-markets/

The opinion expressed above is dated September 2020 and is liable to change. Latest available data is used.

This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Frères Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Frères Gestion SAS. LAZARD FRERES GESTION – a simplified joint stock company with share capital of €14,487,500 – Paris Trade and Companies Registry No. 352 213 599. 25, RUE DE COURCELLES – 75008 PARIS, FRANCE


-- PDF --