China: The Recovery Continues

Chart of the week

Year on year, China’s economy grew 4.9% in the third quarter, following second-quarter growth of 3.2% and an unprecedented fall of 6.8% in the first. These figures take Chinese growth for the first three quarters to 0.7% year-on-year.

 

Our analysis

The economic recovery in China continues and September’s statistics indicated buoyant momentum in the run-up to quarter four. According to the GDP breakdown, investment was the primary growth driver and a gradual shift towards consumer spending, which has now turned positive, is underway.

Barring the unforeseeable, Chinese growth should be positive this year and close to 2%. Although this is a clear slowdown compared to 2019, it is quite a performance when compared to other major developed countries where growth will be deeply negative.

 

See also : https://lazardfreresgestion-tribune.fr/en/united-states-resilient-retail-sales-despite-reduced-support/

 

The opinion expressed above is dated 22th October 2020 and is liable to change.

 

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