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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak: Our Macroeconomic Analysis

COVID19 – Find here our elements of analysis as of April 10th, 2020 Confronted with an exceptional and fast evolving … Continue reading

China: has the economy bottomed-out?

Chart of the week February’s PMI* survey data have not escaped the effects of the coronavirus epidemic. China’s National Bureau … Continue reading

Coronavirus: an initial impact on confidence indicators

Chart of the week Markit has published February’s flash PMI confidence surveys for the United States, the Eurozone and Japan. … Continue reading

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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak: Our Macroeconomic Analysis

COVID19 – Find here our elements of analysis as of April 10th, 2020 Confronted with an exceptional and fast evolving … Continue reading

China: has the economy bottomed-out?

Chart of the week February’s PMI* survey data have not escaped the effects of the coronavirus epidemic. China’s National Bureau … Continue reading

Coronavirus: an initial impact on confidence indicators

Chart of the week Markit has published February’s flash PMI confidence surveys for the United States, the Eurozone and Japan. … Continue reading

United States: manufacturing resistant despite halt in 737 Max production

Chart of the week Boeing’s decision to halt production of the 737 Max from January onwards dealt a significant blow … Continue reading

Employment in the U.S: women drive labour force participation rate to a seven-year high

Chart of the week The US economy got off to a good start in 2020 with 206,000 job creations. 36% … Continue reading

Eurozone: did growth bottom out in Q4 2019?

Chart of the week The preliminary fourth-quarter growth estimate for the eurozone reveals another slowdown. It came in at just … Continue reading

Market outlook S1 2020 | Is faster inflation for 2020 being under-estimated?

Part 5 : is faster inflation for 2020 being under-estimated? Markets appear to be under-estimating the risk of US inflation … Continue reading

Market outlook S1 2020 | How much upside in risky assets after their stellar 2019?

Part 4 : how much upside in risky assets after their stellar 2019? Equities enjoyed an excellent year with momentum … Continue reading

Economic outlook S1 2020 | How much longer can the current cycle continue? The US holds the key

Part 3 : How much longer can the current cycle continue? The US holds the key As the gradual recovery … Continue reading

Economic outlook S1 2020 | Signs of recovering growth

Part 2 : signs of recovering growth Following sharp falls since the start of the US-China trade tensions, the global … Continue reading

Economic outlook S1 2020 | Uncertainties likely to dissipate

Part 1 : uncertainties likely to dissipate The uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade war and Brexit will be less of … Continue reading

United Kingdom: PMI indices rebound in January

Chart of the week The flash UK PMI reading for January displays a net rebound in both services and manufacturing. … Continue reading

Trade war: armistice or ceasefire?

Chart of the week It’s done. Almost two years after the start of the trade war, the United States and … Continue reading

Growth versus Value: All that glitters is not gold

All that glitters is not gold. This aphorism captures the essence of the value investment philosophy. Stemming from the wisdom … Continue reading

United States trade deficit falls sharply

Chart of the week Latest data show that the US trade balance significantly improved in October and November, falling from … Continue reading

We often hear that long-term growth rates and low prices argue in favour of investing more in emerging markets? What do you think?

Question of the week | Emerging markets Although the long-term growth potential in emerging markets remains attractive, it has lessened … Continue reading

Better growth in emerging countries

Chart of the week After one and a half years of slowdown, growth in emerging countries stabilised in the third … Continue reading

Macroeconomic focus – December 2019

Stabilisation of activities Q3 growth was confirmed at +0.9%, annualised, after +0.7% in Q2. The data suggest that private and … Continue reading

How do you see the eurodollar exchange rate evolving?

Question of the week | Eurodollar exchange We are long-term positive and short-term neutral.  The long-run purchasing power parity rate … Continue reading

Eurozone: growth underpinned by consumption but penalised by inventories

Annualised third-quarter growth came in at 0.9% following 0.7% in the second quarter. Public and private consumption both contributed positively, and residential investment gathered pace.

Are bond markets offering attractive term premia?

Chart of the week In theory, investors are compensated for the opportunity cost of locking capital up over an extended … Continue reading

Question of the week | European public debt

Is European public debt still a Sword of Damocles? Although eurozone public debt levels have fallen in the past five … Continue reading

Question of the week | Trade War USA-China

Do you think that a US–Chinese trade war could trigger a recession? Could a trade war be good news for … Continue reading

United States: Capital goods orders reassuringly resilient

Chart of the week Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 1.2% in October. This takes them back to their … Continue reading

Economic outlook – Novembre 2019

Industry providing a glimmer of hope Third-quarter growth for the eurozone was almost unchanged from the previous quarter, rising from … Continue reading

United States: reassuring signs from the property market

Chart of the week Building permits have continued the upward trend that started this summer, rising 5% in October to … Continue reading

Fixed Income Newsletter

October was marked by several events. A partial US-Chinese trade agreement along with a delay to Brexit until 31 January 2020 drove sovereign yields sharply higher and risk premia lower.

Spain: sovereign risk rises slightly

Chart of the week On November 10th, Spain’s electorate voted for the second time in 2019. The results failed to … Continue reading

Germany: a glimmer of hope for industry

Chart of the week Although October’s manufacturing PMI has inched up from its September low, 42.1 is a level that … Continue reading

United-States: Fed balance sheet rebuild is not more QE

Chart of the week Having allowed its balance sheet to gradually shrink since the start of 2018, the Federal Reserve … Continue reading

Economic outlook – October 2019

ECB boosts support for the economy On September 13th, at his penultimate meeting as ECB1 head, Mario Draghi announced a … Continue reading

Market outlook S2 2019

Ever lower rates for the foreseeable future? In contrast with wath we were expecting at the start of 2019, US … Continue reading

Europe | Economic outlook S2 2019

Stabilisation in Europe Eurozone growth has slown sharply over the past 12 months, but PMI survey returns are now in … Continue reading

United-States | Economic outlook S2 2019

No sign from typical leading recession indicators in the US We have identified four indicators that typically deteriorate 12 to … Continue reading

World | Economic outlook S2 2019

World: little sign of a slowdown beyond the manufacturing sector As in 2015-16, global manufacturing is slowing sharply. The global … Continue reading

Video | Economic and market outlook S2 2019

Global manufacturing is undergoing a slowdown that, for now, is not spilling over to the rest of the economy. But … Continue reading

China | Economic outlook S2 2019

Carefully steered growth in China and supportive monetary policies across the emerging markets The US-China trade war poses a significant … Continue reading

Eurozone: is the 2% inflation target a step towards macroeconomic instability?

CHART OF THE WEEK The ECB aims to keep inflation close to, but below, 2%. This is a symmetric objective, … Continue reading

UK set to avoid a recession (so far)

Chart of the week The UK’s monthly GDP estimate for August, as calculated by the Office for National Statistics, indicates … Continue reading

Short-duration eurozone bonds: Why invest in EUR credit amid interest-rate uncertainty?

Short-duration bond management is intended for both retail and institutional investors who are seeking exposure to the short end of the yield curve (0 to 5 years), either as a structural allocation that aims at outperforming money-market returns with limited risk, or as a tactical retreat from riskier assets.

United States: A strikingly similar picture to 2016

September’s ISM indices were all but encouraging. The manufacturing ISM fell from 49.1 to 47.8, a level last seen in 2009 and not far off the January 2016 low of 48.0.

China: Mixed signals from the economy

August’s economic data, which were published on September 16th, fell short of expectations. While markets had been looking for a rebound following a disappointing July …

Beyond the hype: Identifying all types of innovation

Arnaud Brossard, Portfolio Manager/Analyst on European equities, covers the technology, staples and basic resources sectors. He manages the Lazard Innovation … Continue reading

United States: Labour market resilient despite the slowdown in job creation

CHART OF THE WEEK The employment report confirms the recent slowdown in job creation. Just 467,000 jobs have been created … Continue reading

Economic Outlook – July 2019

A new president for the ECB With the European elections behind them, EU leaders turned their attention to designating the … Continue reading

Germany: unprecedented gap between the manufacturing sector and the rest of the economy

Chart of the week Germany’s July flash PMI indices saw the manufacturing index drop 1.9 points to 43.1, just 0.1 … Continue reading

Negative yielding bonds gain ground

Chart of the week On 28 June 2019, the value of negative-yielding bonds stood at almost USD 13 trillion, compared … Continue reading

United States: is inflation weakness only temporary?

Chart of the week June’s inflation figures marked the second highest monthly rise in the core rate, which strips out … Continue reading

Eurozone: unemployment rates are approaching record lows

Chart of the week Despite slower growth, the unemployment rate has continued to fall in recent months. In May, it … Continue reading

Eurozone: mixed signals from confidence indicators

Chart of the week The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator remained sluggish and settled at 103.3 in June, its lowest … Continue reading


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