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What is the point of quantitative easing?

Question of the week Quantitative easing involves central banks buying assets on a massive scale with the primary objective of … Continue reading

United States: resilient retail sales despite reduced support

Chart of the week While we might have feared a fall or sharp slowdown in September’s retail sales as the … Continue reading

United States: an extraordinary transfer of resources – at least for the moment

Chart of the week The US economic stimulus plans adopted during the spring have surpassed everything ever done before. The … Continue reading

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What is the point of quantitative easing?

Question of the week Quantitative easing involves central banks buying assets on a massive scale with the primary objective of … Continue reading

United States: resilient retail sales despite reduced support

Chart of the week While we might have feared a fall or sharp slowdown in September’s retail sales as the … Continue reading

United States: an extraordinary transfer of resources – at least for the moment

Chart of the week The US economic stimulus plans adopted during the spring have surpassed everything ever done before. The … Continue reading

What does ISM stand for?

Question of the week The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) publishes the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI – also called the … Continue reading

United States : post-lockdown euphoria in the property market

Chart of the week US home sales marked another monthly rise in August. New home sales surged 4.8% on top … Continue reading

Economic outlook S2 2020 | Brisk post-lockdown rebound

Part 2 : brisk post-lockdown rebound The post-lockdown rebound is occurring at a faster and stronger rate than consensus expectations. … Continue reading

Market outlook S2 2020 | Unreasonable equity markets?

Part 5 : unreasonable equity markets? We believe that the backdrop for equity markets remains favourable.  Despite earnings outlooks being … Continue reading

Market outlook S2 2020 | Hyperactive bond buying by central banks

Part 4 : hyperactive bond buying by central banks Monetary policy can be expected to remain accommodative for some time … Continue reading

Economic outlook S2 2020 | Long-lasting crisis effects versus continued massive economic support

Part 3 : long-lasting crisis effects versus continued massive economic support Even if, by year-end, the economy is running much … Continue reading

Economic outlook S2 2020 | An unpredictable epidemic but a return to full lockdown unlikely

Part 1 : an unpredictable epidemic but a return to full lockdown unlikely   Nearly nine months after COVID-19 first … Continue reading

Japan : money supply surges higher

Chart of the week The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) long-standing quantitative (1)easing dates back to the early 2000s and has, … Continue reading

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak : Our Macroeconomic Analysis

COVID19 – Find here our elements of analysis as of September 25th, 2020 THE OUTBREAK Almost nine months after first … Continue reading

What are Fed Funds ?

Question of the week Fed Funds (Federal Funds) are loans that US banks make to each other to meet the … Continue reading

Macroeconomic focus – July 2020

An unprecedented European recovery plan Most of the data available for the eurozone relates to May and only shows the … Continue reading

Dr. Strangemoney, or “How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Debt”

In the wake of the Covid-19 crisis, governments everywhere have been engaging in support programmes on an unprecedented scale. As … Continue reading

United States : record levels of forced saving

Chart of the week Lockdowns enforced due to the Covid-19 outbreak have led to significant business losses that have depressed … Continue reading

Macroeconomic focus – June 2020

Recovering economic activity and new support measures June’s eurozone flash (1)PMI indices show a continuing rebound in activity, with the … Continue reading

The shift from physical to e-commerce is accelerating

Chart of the week May’s retail sales figures have jumped sharply. Total sales shot up 17.7% in May, bringing volumes … Continue reading

European Funds Trophy 2020 Rankings

EUROPEAN FUNDS TROPHY 2020 LAZARD FRÈRES GESTION TOPS THE EUROPEAN ASSET MANAGEMENT COMPANY RANKINGS Lazard Frères Gestion has been named … Continue reading

Macroeconomic focus – May 2020

Has the economy bottomed out? The succession of lockdowns across Europe led to a collapse in eurozone GDP (1), which … Continue reading

Eurozone: PMI indices rebound in may

Chart of the week Flash PMI indices are showing sharp rebounds from April’s abyssal depths. The composite PMI (1) for … Continue reading

A multi-speed recovery in China

Chart of the week The National Bureau of Statistics of China has released its economic data for April. Year-on-year growth … Continue reading

Sweden: a less stringent lockdown has softened the economic blow

Chart of the week As an increasing number of countries start returning to normal, April is set to be the … Continue reading

United States: money creation at its highest since World War II

Chart of the week Money growth has risen sharply due to the Federal Reserve’s response to the Covid-19 crisis and … Continue reading

China’s awakening

Chart of the week China has released both its first quarter GDP estimate and economic data for March. First quarter … Continue reading

CHINA : FIRST SIGNS OF STIMULUS

Chart of the week China was the first country affected by the Covid-19 epidemic and the first to implement lockdown. … Continue reading

What impact will falling oil prices have on European banks ?

Oil prices are currently under pressure from a major supply shock and if it continues, the medium-term implications on the … Continue reading

China: has the economy bottomed-out?

Chart of the week February’s PMI* survey data have not escaped the effects of the coronavirus epidemic. China’s National Bureau … Continue reading

Coronavirus: an initial impact on confidence indicators

Chart of the week Markit has published February’s flash PMI confidence surveys for the United States, the Eurozone and Japan. … Continue reading

United States: manufacturing resistant despite halt in 737 Max production

Chart of the week Boeing’s decision to halt production of the 737 Max from January onwards dealt a significant blow … Continue reading

Employment in the U.S: women drive labour force participation rate to a seven-year high

Chart of the week The US economy got off to a good start in 2020 with 206,000 job creations. 36% … Continue reading

Eurozone: did growth bottom out in Q4 2019?

Chart of the week The preliminary fourth-quarter growth estimate for the eurozone reveals another slowdown. It came in at just … Continue reading

Market outlook S1 2020 | Is faster inflation for 2020 being under-estimated?

Part 5 : is faster inflation for 2020 being under-estimated? Markets appear to be under-estimating the risk of US inflation … Continue reading

Market outlook S1 2020 | How much upside in risky assets after their stellar 2019?

Part 4 : how much upside in risky assets after their stellar 2019? Equities enjoyed an excellent year with momentum … Continue reading

Economic outlook S1 2020 | How much longer can the current cycle continue? The US holds the key

Part 3 : How much longer can the current cycle continue? The US holds the key As the gradual recovery … Continue reading

Economic outlook S1 2020 | Signs of recovering growth

Part 2 : signs of recovering growth Following sharp falls since the start of the US-China trade tensions, the global … Continue reading

Economic outlook S1 2020 | Uncertainties likely to dissipate

Part 1 : uncertainties likely to dissipate The uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade war and Brexit will be less of … Continue reading

United Kingdom: PMI indices rebound in January

Chart of the week The flash UK PMI reading for January displays a net rebound in both services and manufacturing. … Continue reading

Trade war: armistice or ceasefire?

Chart of the week It’s done. Almost two years after the start of the trade war, the United States and … Continue reading

Growth versus Value: All that glitters is not gold

All that glitters is not gold. This aphorism captures the essence of the value investment philosophy. Stemming from the wisdom … Continue reading

United States trade deficit falls sharply

Chart of the week Latest data show that the US trade balance significantly improved in October and November, falling from … Continue reading

We often hear that long-term growth rates and low prices argue in favour of investing more in emerging markets? What do you think?

Question of the week | Emerging markets Although the long-term growth potential in emerging markets remains attractive, it has lessened … Continue reading

Better growth in emerging countries

Chart of the week After one and a half years of slowdown, growth in emerging countries stabilised in the third … Continue reading

Macroeconomic focus – December 2019

Stabilisation of activities Q3 growth was confirmed at +0.9%, annualised, after +0.7% in Q2. The data suggest that private and … Continue reading

How do you see the eurodollar exchange rate evolving?

Question of the week | Eurodollar exchange We are long-term positive and short-term neutral.  The long-run purchasing power parity rate … Continue reading

Eurozone: growth underpinned by consumption but penalised by inventories

Annualised third-quarter growth came in at 0.9% following 0.7% in the second quarter. Public and private consumption both contributed positively, and residential investment gathered pace.

Are bond markets offering attractive term premia?

Chart of the week In theory, investors are compensated for the opportunity cost of locking capital up over an extended … Continue reading

Question of the week | European public debt

Is European public debt still a Sword of Damocles? Although eurozone public debt levels have fallen in the past five … Continue reading

Question of the week | Trade War USA-China

Do you think that a US–Chinese trade war could trigger a recession? Could a trade war be good news for … Continue reading

United States: Capital goods orders reassuringly resilient

Chart of the week Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 1.2% in October. This takes them back to their … Continue reading


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